Global Foreign Reserves

BT, 14 Nov 2008.

Photography Accessories

Tripod
Manfrotto
http://www.manfrotto.com/
Gitzo
http://www.gitzo.com

Camera Body
Nikon
http://www.nikon.com.sg/
Nikon D300 - best value for money.

Lenses
Nikor 50mm f1.4, $460 (Alan Foto, 14 Nov 08)
Nikor 80mm f1.8, $760 (Cathay Photo)
Nikor 80mm f1.4, $1,760 (Cathay Photo)

Flash
SB-900, $650 (Alan Foto, 14 Nov 08)

Memory Cards
Sandisk Extreme III CF 8.0GB, $85.
Toshiba SD 2.0GB, $15.

Camera Bags
Lowepro Flipside 300, $183 @ Harvey Norman.
Lowepro Orion AW belt pack, $335 @ Cathay Photo.

Where to eat in Hong Kong

1. Modern China

UG06B Olympian City 2, 18 Hoi Ting Rd, West Kowloon
Lunch: 11:45AM - 3PM
Dinner: 5:45PM - 11:00PM

1002, Food Forum, Times Square, Causeway Bay

2. Sweet Dynasty

Ground Floor, 100 Canton Road, Tsimshatsui, Kowloon
Monday to Thursday (10:00am - 12:00am)
Friday (10:00am - 01:00am)
Saturday (07:30am - 01:00am)
Sunday(07:30am - 12:00am)
Public Holiday opened at 7:30am
The eve of Public Holiday closed at 01:00am

3. Cafe de Coral

• Best value for money for your meals.
• Cleaner, fast food version of Hong Kong's famous Char Chan Tang.
• Price is very reasonable, that's why it's packed all day long with locals.
• Many outlets all over Kowloon and Hong Kong.

4. Tai Cheong Bakery (Egg Tarts) @ 35, Lyndhurst Terrace, Central.

• HK$5 each. Crust is "ang mo" type. Overall rating: Over rated.
• Branches: Shop B, Jardine Centre, 50 Jardine's Bazaar, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
• Shop 535, Grand Century Place, Mongkok

5. Yuen Long's Hang Hueng wife biscuit @ 64-66 Castle Peak Road.

Hang Heung Yuen Long outlet is located at 64-66 Castle Peak Road. U can either take their KCR West Rail and alight at Yuen Long Station and walk or for a shorter walking distance, change to LRT at Yuen Long Station and take LRT to Tai Tong Road Station (almost dropping opposite).

6. Lei Garden (Dim Sum)

B-2, Houston Centre, Tsimshatsui East, Kowloon, Hong Kong

121 Sai Yee Street, Mongkok, Kowloon, Hong Kong

Monday to Saturday & Public Holidays
Lunch: 11:30 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Dinner: 6:00 p.m. - 11:30 p.m.
Sunday
Lunch: 11:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Dinner: 6:00 p.m. - 11:30 p.m.

7. Mak Aun Kee - Mak's Noodle (Wanton mee) @ 77 Wellington Street, Central, Hong Kong

• Expensive and small portion.
• HK$28 for wanton mee, HK$30 for dumpling mee (preferred).
• Branch: 44, Jardine's Bazaar, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
• Branch: Shop No. C03, 2/F, (Arrival Hall), China Hong Kong City, No. 33, Canton Road, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon.

8. Tsim Chai Kee (Wonton mee) - opposite Mak's Noodles @ 98 Wellington Street, Central.
Cheaper and bigger wontons.

• 5 minutes walk from MTR Central Station (Exit D2)

9. Wong Chi Kei (Bamboo Noodles) - the bamboo noodle shop from Macau.

On the other end of Wellington Street (start at Mak's, walk up and then down the hill).

10. Yung Kee @ 32-40 Wellington Street, Central, Hong Kong.

• Must Try: Roast Goose, Suckling Pig.
• 5 minutes walk from MTR Central Station (Exit D2)
• Reservation By Telephone
  (852) 2522 1624
• (852)2523 2343 (Take Out Order)
• Business Hours:
  11:00a.m. - 11:30p.m.(Daily)
• Dim-Sum Dining:
  2:00p.m. - 5:30p.m.(Mon. to Sat.)
• 11:00a.m.-5:30p.m.(Sunday & Public Holiday)

11. Tsui Wah (char chan teng) @ 15D-19 Wellington St., Central, Hong Kong
Open 24 hours.

12. Wong Chi Kee @ Terminal 2. (Wanton Noodles)

13. Hang Heung's Kitchen @ Terminal 1.

14. T'ang Court (Dim Sum) @ 8 Peking Rd, located in the Langham Hotel, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon

Mon-Sat noon-3pm
Sun and holidays 11am-3pm
Daily 6-11pm

15. On Lee Noodle Factory @ G/F, Shun Loong Mansion, 94-90 Bonham Strand East, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

• http://www.onleenoodle.com.hk/

16. Hoixe Bakery near junction of Hankow Road and Haiphong Road.

• Egg tarts @ HK$4 each. Overall rating: Die Die Must Try.
• Bread and cakes are also fabulous.

17. Chao Inn restaurant @ Shop 728, 7/F, Grand Century Place, Mongkok, Kowloon.

18. Jumbo restaurant @ Aberdeen.

• Can take Bus 71 from bus terminal outside Star Ferry terminal.
• Great ambience, fabulous food, quality.
• Worth a visit if you have a huge budget.
• 7 dishes could set you back by HK$2,000.

US faces long, moderate recession: Stephen Roach

Business Times - 14 Nov 2008

He says Asia will still emerge in better shape than the rest of the world
By CONRAD TAN

THE world economy will take years to return to the rapid growth it experienced before the current financial crisis struck, Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach said yesterday.
But Asia should still manage to weather a long but moderate recession in the US relatively well, he added.

'The global economy is in terrible shape right now. This is the worst global crisis that I've seen in my 36-year career as a professional economist,' said Mr Roach, who was Morgan Stanley's chief economist until his appointment as head of the group's Asia operations in April last year.

'Asia is going to feel the impact, but Asia is actually going to come out of this better than the rest of the world, and I think the markets are overdoing the gloom with respect to Asia.'

He was speaking to reporters at Morgan Stanley's annual Asia-Pacific Summit in Singapore.
The US will most likely go through a lengthy but moderate recession as consumer spending contracts and people there gradually adjust to lifestyles fuelled by less borrowing, he said.

'My suspicion is that the US recession is going to be long, but it's not going to be deep - it'll be moderate, but not mild.'

In that case, Asia will still fare better than the rest of the world, managing about 5 per cent growth in each of the next two years, he said.

On Wednesday in the US, Morgan Stanley said it would fire 10 per cent of staff in its main institutional securities business - which includes investment banking - and 9 per cent of workers in asset management, Reuters reported.

Asked how the latest job cuts would affect the bank's operations in Asia, Mr Roach said only that the staff cuts in Asia 'will be a good deal less than our global work force reductions given our belief that this region is a huge source of growth for the world and for Morgan Stanley'.

The four-trillion-yuan (S$880 billion) package of fiscal measures announced by China last Sunday would likely support China's economic expansion at about 7 per cent, even as the contribution to growth from exports slow sharply, he said.

'If China can hold the line at 7 per cent, then the region can hold the line at say, 5 per cent, and Asia will come through this global tsunami in better shape than the rest of the world.'

But the prospects of a rapid rebound in economic activity worldwide to pre-crisis levels are dim, he said.

'I think the recovery in the global economy is going to have a big, wide bottom and then a very gradual up-slope in 2010 or 2011 - an anaemic recovery.'

Economic output worldwide, as measured by gross domestic product, grew at an average annual pace of nearly 5 per cent in the four-and-a-half years to mid-2007, when the current crisis started, he said.

'It's now slowed to about 2-2.5 per cent - this is a recession by any standards and it's an amazingly sharp and abrupt slowdown.'

Any recovery in global GDP will likely only emerge in 2010 and 2011 and 'the best I can see in the years beyond that is a return to 3.5-3.75 per cent global growth', he said.

'The 5 per cent, bull-like years of world GDP expansion - you're not going to see that for a long, long time, in large part because of the multi-year adjustment of the US consumer.'

Interest rates fall to five-year low

Business Times - 12 Nov 2008

3-month Sibor plunges to 0.89%; borrowers may gain, savers may be hit
By SIOW LI SEN

(SINGAPORE) Interest rates have plunged to near five-year lows as loan demand falls off a cliff even as governments inject liquidity to get credit flowing again.

Yesterday, the key three-month Sibor or Singapore interbank bank offered rate fell to 0.89 per cent, not far from the all-time low of 0.69 per cent on Nov 21, 2003. The benchmark rate, to which many home loans are pegged, is now 60 per cent lower from less than two months ago when it hit 2.23 per cent on Sept 26.

While this may be good for borrowers, savers may find themselves earning no interest - similar to the situation in Hong Kong where banks pay nothing for savings accounts.

HSBC Hong Kong pays zero interest for amounts less than HK$5,000 (S$969) while amounts higher than that earn 0.01 per cent. DBS Bank Hong Kong too pays a miserly 0.01 per cent for savings accounts regardless of amounts. Even its high-end Treasures customers get only 0.15 per cent, regardless of their balance.

The rapid fall in interest rates has caught many by surprise. 'We are in unprecedented times,' said Alvin Liew, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore economist.

Mr Liew said that Singapore's interest rates are influenced by US interest rates and domestic demand.

'In recent years, domestic interest rates moved more or less in line with the US$ Libor or interbank rate, but at a discount, as Singapore has in recent years had a forex appreciation stance,' he said.

'With Singapore now having moved to a neutral policy, one of the key implications would be that currency appreciation is taken out of the equation, and we are likely to see SGD Sibor tracking US$ Libor much closer.'

The US Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Fund Target Rate (FFTR) by another 50 basis points to one per cent (on Oct 29) and many expect another 50 bps snip before end-2008 to bring FFTR to a record low of 0.5 per cent and held at this level for the whole of 2009.

But the three-month Sibor is still lower than the FFTR and one of the factors could be that Singapore is regarded as a safe haven in a more volatile region, said Mr Liew.

Selena Ling, OCBC Bank economist, said that, over the years, the three-month Sibor has traded at a wide discount to the US rate, though a very rough guide would be one per cent discount to the FFTR.

'But if the Fed cuts to 50 basis points, we can't go to negative, right?' Ms Ling said. She noted, however, that overnight Sibor rates recently have gone very near to zero.

'It's highly unlikely we'll go to zero, but never say never,' she said, referring to the three-month Sibor.

'The current circumstances are quite abnormal because all the central banks are injecting liquidity, and you can't second guess them,' she added.

Some feel interest rates will continue to face downside pressure as demand for loans will contract next year given that Singapore is already in a recession.

So what can borrowers and savers expect?

Dennis Khoo, general manager of lending at Standard Chartered Bank was non-committal.

'If customers feel that rates will go lower, then the three-month Sibor is a good way to capitalise, given that it automatically adjusts as the rates go lower. Should customers feel that rates will eventually move higher, then Standard Chartered Bank offers them an attractive mortgage pricing package with a two-year lock-in period of 2.49 per cent.'

He added: 'As interest rates drop, the savings rates will move in tandem.'

Global crisis could accelerate East Asia's rise: SM Goh

Business Times - 12 Nov 2008

Western economies can no longer afford to ignore region's rising contribution
By LEE U-WEN

THE United States will remain first among equals long after the dust from the global financial meltdown settles, but the rise of East Asia could be accelerated by crisis, according to Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.

He made the point in Hong Kong last night as he argued the case that Western economies can no longer afford to ignore the growing contribution and presence of East Asian nations.

'The current crisis may well accelerate, and its aftermath will at least confirm, the fundamental changes in the international order that rapid East Asian growth has already set in motion,' Mr Goh said in a keynote address at the Asia Society Hong Kong Centre's annual dinner.

Mr Goh, who is on a four-day official visit to Hong Kong and Macau, was invited to speak on the topic, 'Governance and Growth in Emerging Asia'.

'We may well be seeing the birth of a multi-polar world,' he said. 'Will the developed West admit successful East Asian economies into its exclusive club as equals? Or will it simply heighten discomfort which any change to the status quo may bring?'

He noted that 'symptoms of disquiet' are already evident, citing examples such as concern over Asian sovereign wealth funds injecting capital into foreign assets, controversies over the interpretation and implementation of human rights and debates over the reform of the United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

'The list could easily be extended,' said Mr Goh. 'The proximate causes may differ, but there is a common source of discomfort. In East Asia, capitalism flourishes without Western style liberal democracy. This challenges the preferred historical narrative of the West in a fundamental way.'
Mr Goh admitted that restructuring of international order 'is never easy' and that historically, all such changes have been either the cause or result of conflicts.

To avoid history repeating itself, countries should 'not propagate simplistic ideas' about the superiority of one system or another, he said. Instead, all nations should realise that no one type of political system has a monopoly on success, and that growth can take place under different types of systems.

Mr Goh listed four main attributes a political system should have for a country to flourish: accountability and transparency; long- term planning and execution; social justice and harmony; a culture of identifying and grooming talent for public service.
'Every country must find the political system that can deliver the goods,' he said. 'And what works in one historical period may not necessarily deliver in another. But however societies evolve politically, we must never lose sight of these basic attributes if they are to continue to prosper.'

Assets in a time of low interest rates

Business Times - 13 Nov 2008

SINGAPORE'S already modest interest rates, as reflected in the key three-month interbank rate, have fallen further to a four-year low of 0.88 per cent, placing savers and investors in a quandary. In a normal environment, a negative real interest rate should be supportive of asset prices. Inflation in September was over 6 per cent, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has forecast inflation at 2.5 to 3.5 per cent for 2009. But these times, of course, are far from normal. Stress in the credit market is still starkly in evidence, even as the US dollar Libor rate has trended down to 2.18 per cent from a peak of 4.8 per cent a month ago. Non-investment-grade corporate bonds, for example, are trading at record spreads not seen since the 1930s. While that market segment has fallen victim - along with most other assets - to the savage pace of deleveraging, market participants are also pricing in a level of default and economic stress that fund managers believe is irrational.

The irrationality extends across asset classes. In numerous markets, stock indices have fallen to multi-year lows. The Straits Times Index (STI) is currently trading at a price-earnings ratio of six times and a dividend yield of 5.7 per cent, for example. The yield on Asian investment-grade corporate debt stands at nearly 9 per cent. At a time when deposits of less than $50,000 fetch less than 0.3 per cent, it would seem a no-brainer to begin to take some risk, even as analysts continue to debate the billion-dollar question: Is the world heading for a deflationary-type era reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s?

For now, it would seem that concerted action by governments to reflate economies and kick-start the credit markets should at some point begin to show results. By far, the biggest challenge is to restore confidence, particularly among consumers who are notoriously driven by the rear-view mirror. Deep portfolio losses this year are exacerbated by faltering home values as well, almost wiping out any of the feel-good wealth effect that had buoyed Singapore in the last couple of years. But the last thing the economy needs now is for consumers to retreat into a shell. This is where falling interest rates should help once they begin to translate into lower interest expenses on mortgages and corporate loans.

Looking ahead, the financial landscape is indeed in uncharted waters, as banks scale down investment banking activities and cut risk generally. But for investors and savers with medium to long-term goals, the math does not change. A low interest rate that could well trend to near zero is a positive for investments with a steady stream of cash flow and dividends, as a low discount rate should translate into higher asset values. What remains then is to pick good-quality and defensive assets with low gearing, whose coupon or income payouts will help to cushion price volatility. Those assets are in abundance today, even with the caveat of slower growth. The alternative is to sit on cash - an unpalatable option given the long-term history of returns.