Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Identifying Value Stocks

1. Low PE

  • Stocks with PE less than 10

2. Low Price-to-Book ratio

  • Discount to book or Net Asset Value (NAV).
  • Worth more if broken up and and sold piecemeal.
  • Even more attractive if it has (a) Intangible assets (e.g. strong brand), (b) Hidden assets (e.g. real estate, potential spin-offs).
  • These are not reflected in financial statements, meaning that the company book value may be understated.

3. Debt-to-Equity ratio less than 1.

  • Shows how company structure its capital to finance business.
  • Preference for earnings growth to be generated by shareholders' equity rather than borrowings.
  • Large proportion of debt incur high interest expenses.
  • Could result in more volatile earnings performance.

4. Low Price-to-Cashflow multiple

  • Financial health: ability to generate positive cashflow.
  • Rule of Thumb: P/CF less than 5.

5. Price-to-Earnings Growth (PEG) less than 1.

  • Relates company's future earnings to its estimated growth rate.
  • Prospective PE / Estimated future earnings growth rate.

6. High and sustainable Profit Margin.

  • Compare gross profit margin with peers.
  • Shows competitiveness of products and services.
  • Able to consistently improve net profit margin.
  • Shows management more efficient at controlling expenses as business grows.

7. Quality of management team.

8. Level of corporate governance and transparency.

Note: The most difficult step in the identification of a value stock is determining if it is trading at a sufficient margin of safety to its intrinsic value. Many value investors use a margin of safety of at least 25%.

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