El Nino is here

July 11, 2009

NEW YORK - WHAT meteorologists have suspected for weeks now is apparently official: El Nino has arrived.

The US government has warned that that a dreaded El Nino weather pattern is developing, putting countries from Asia to North America on alert for meteorological havoc to crops, infrastructure, ports and mines.

The phenomenon, caused by a warming of the seas in the Pacific, has already brought drought to Australia and delayed monsoon to India. It's impact could be felt in Latin American and North America by the fall.

The Climate Prediction Centre, an office under the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, said in a monthly report on Thursday that the equatorial Pacific Ocean has 'transitioned ... to El Nino conditions.'

The trends favour a 'weak-to-moderate strength El Nino' into the northern hemisphere winter of 2009, 'with further strengthening possible thereafter'.

It was first noticed by Latin American anchovy fishermen in the 19th century and scientists say it tends to come in cycles of three to five years. The 1997/98 El Nino killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damages.

This El Nino is striking just as global economies are struggling to overcome the impact of the world's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression in 1929.

An El Nino-spawned drought would pose a major risk to wheat production in Australia, affect palm oil output in major producers Malaysia and Indonesia, and hit rice production in the Philippines, the world's biggest importer of the staple.

News over the past few days that this El Nino may be weak to moderate led to a sell-off in Malaysian palm oil futures, which slid to a three-month low on Tuesday. -- REUTERS