Saturday, July 11, 2009

Weaker than normal monsoon in India

The main source of worry for commodity market players is India, where the weather cycle seems to have contributed to a weaker-than-normal monsoon rain season considered critical to the country's sprawling farm economy.

While rains have now covered all of India, its Meteorological Department said that as of July 1, the rains were running at 29 per cent below normal.

A US Agricultural attache report said the country may be hit by a severe drought if the monsoon remains weak since plantings for its major crops like soybeans, rice and sugar are closing by the middle of July.

An El Nino-induced dry spell in South America may hit soybean exports from Argentina and Brazil to China and India at a time when US soybean stocks are at a 32-year low - less than two weeks of normal commercial supplies.

A salutary effect of this El Nino may be fewer storms sweeping in from the Atlantic or the Gulf to threaten oil rigs and menace crops in Mexico, Cuba and Jamaica, and the southern United States. - REUTERS

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