Business Times - 07 Jul 2009
THE question of a new global reserve currency will likely be raised again at the Group of Eight industrial countries (G-8) meeting in Italy this week, judging from developments over the last fortnight. China has reportedly asked for debate on the issue when leaders from the G-8 meet leaders of the G-5 emerging economies on the sidelines of the summit. Ahead of the talks, China, India and Russia have all pressed for a rethinking of how the world's currency reserves, currently US dollar-dominated, should be composed.
It has not been just rhetoric - China for instance said recently that it will allow companies to use the yuan to settle cross-border trade and let them keep their entitlement to export tax rebates to reduce the reliance of importers and exporters on the US dollar. The People's Bank of China agreed to provide a total of 650 billion yuan (the equivalent of about US$95 billion) to Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea through so-called currency swaps to expand the yuan's usage. China and Brazil in May began studying a proposal to move away from the US dollar for trade settlement and use the yuan and reais instead.
But for all that, the countries pushing for a diminished role for the US dollar face a delicate balancing act. China and India remain dependent on the currency of the US, the world's largest economy and a US$2.5 trillion export market. The International Monetary Fund said on June 30 that the share of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves, despite the financial crisis, increased to 65 per cent in the first three months of this year, the highest since 2007. It is this exposure, and worries about the impact of US economic weakness and its ballooning deficit on the US dollar, that are driving emerging countries to diversify their foreign currency reserves and to reduce their dependence on the greenback. Yet, any move to reduce the importance of the US dollar may drive its value down, and erode the value of the huge US dollar-denominated assets of these nations.
This was the point made by Japan, which has expressed caution on calls to diminish the US dollar as the key international currency. Yoichi Suzuki, director-general of the Japanese foreign ministry's economic affairs bureau, pointed out that it would not benefit any country to talk about ideas for a new global key currency which would weaken the US dollar.
There are also market realities. For all the criticism of the US dollar, it remains the only real international currency recognised by global markets - US dollar bonds sold by the same emerging-market countries pushing for a new global currency are outperforming debt traded in reais, roubles and yuan. Any attempt to replace the US dollar as the global currency, which has underpinned exchange rates since the 1971 collapse of the Bretton Woods system, could likely lead to major dislocations in trade, economic activity and financial markets.
THE question of a new global reserve currency will likely be raised again at the Group of Eight industrial countries (G-8) meeting in Italy this week, judging from developments over the last fortnight. China has reportedly asked for debate on the issue when leaders from the G-8 meet leaders of the G-5 emerging economies on the sidelines of the summit. Ahead of the talks, China, India and Russia have all pressed for a rethinking of how the world's currency reserves, currently US dollar-dominated, should be composed.
It has not been just rhetoric - China for instance said recently that it will allow companies to use the yuan to settle cross-border trade and let them keep their entitlement to export tax rebates to reduce the reliance of importers and exporters on the US dollar. The People's Bank of China agreed to provide a total of 650 billion yuan (the equivalent of about US$95 billion) to Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea through so-called currency swaps to expand the yuan's usage. China and Brazil in May began studying a proposal to move away from the US dollar for trade settlement and use the yuan and reais instead.
But for all that, the countries pushing for a diminished role for the US dollar face a delicate balancing act. China and India remain dependent on the currency of the US, the world's largest economy and a US$2.5 trillion export market. The International Monetary Fund said on June 30 that the share of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves, despite the financial crisis, increased to 65 per cent in the first three months of this year, the highest since 2007. It is this exposure, and worries about the impact of US economic weakness and its ballooning deficit on the US dollar, that are driving emerging countries to diversify their foreign currency reserves and to reduce their dependence on the greenback. Yet, any move to reduce the importance of the US dollar may drive its value down, and erode the value of the huge US dollar-denominated assets of these nations.
This was the point made by Japan, which has expressed caution on calls to diminish the US dollar as the key international currency. Yoichi Suzuki, director-general of the Japanese foreign ministry's economic affairs bureau, pointed out that it would not benefit any country to talk about ideas for a new global key currency which would weaken the US dollar.
There are also market realities. For all the criticism of the US dollar, it remains the only real international currency recognised by global markets - US dollar bonds sold by the same emerging-market countries pushing for a new global currency are outperforming debt traded in reais, roubles and yuan. Any attempt to replace the US dollar as the global currency, which has underpinned exchange rates since the 1971 collapse of the Bretton Woods system, could likely lead to major dislocations in trade, economic activity and financial markets.
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